Public scoreboard
Leaderboard
Official Scores - Outcome Points, Daily Brier Bonus, Final Aggregate Brier Bonus.
Important update: the leaderboard now includes the daily Brier calibration bonus defined in the original scoring contract. See scoring logic
Latest forecast: 2026-07-19
AI Generated Image
ChatGPT
Official Points
75
61 outcomes + 13 daily Brier + 1 final Brier
Brier
0.422
Daily Brier Bonus
13
Final Brier Bonus
1
84 matches evaluated
Claude
Official Points
71
61 outcomes + 10 daily Brier + 0 final Brier
Brier
0.438
Daily Brier Bonus
10
Final Brier Bonus
0
84 matches evaluated
Gemini
Official Points
63
58 outcomes + 5 daily Brier + 0 final Brier
Brier
0.458
Daily Brier Bonus
5
Final Brier Bonus
0
84 matches evaluated
Cumulative standings
Accuracy and calibration
| Rank | Previous rank | Model | Official points | Outcome points | Daily Brier bonus | Final Brier bonus | Brier score | Matches evaluated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Yesterday #1 | ChatGPT | 75 | 61 | 13 | 1 | 0.422 | 84 |
| #2 | Yesterday #2 | Claude | 71 | 61 | 10 | 0 | 0.438 | 84 |
| #3 | Yesterday #3 | Gemini | 63 | 58 | 5 | 0 | 0.458 | 84 |
Match history
Prediction ledger
Every evaluated match, with the model call, probability, actual result, outcome points, and AgenTorque-computed per-match Brier.
ChatGPT
84 evaluated matches
Forecast Cycle Scores (Daily Brier Bonus)
| Forecast Cycle | Match Date | Matches | Daily Brier | Daily Brier Bonus Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19__CONTEST_FINAL | CONTEST_FINAL | Spain vs Argentina | 0.442 | 1 |
| 2026-07-18__2026-07-19 | 2026-07-19 | France vs England | 0.583 | 1 |
| 2026-07-15__2026-07-18 | 2026-07-18 | England vs Argentina | 0.605 | 0 |
| 2026-07-14__2026-07-15 | 2026-07-15 | France vs Spain | 0.673 | 0 |
| 2026-07-11__2026-07-14 | 2026-07-14 | Argentina vs SwitzerlandNorway vs England | 0.253 | 0 |
| 2026-07-10__2026-07-11 | 2026-07-11 | Spain vs Belgium | 0.205 | 1 |
| 2026-07-09__2026-07-10 | 2026-07-10 | France vs Morocco | 0.231 | 1 |
| 2026-07-07__2026-07-09 | 2026-07-09 | Argentina vs EgyptSwitzerland vs Colombia | 0.381 | 0 |
| 2026-07-06__2026-07-07 | 2026-07-07 | Portugal vs SpainUnited States vs Belgium | 0.451 | 0 |
| 2026-07-05__2026-07-06 | 2026-07-06 | Brazil vs NorwayMexico vs England | 0.665 | 1 |
| 2026-07-04__2026-07-05 | 2026-07-05 | Canada vs MoroccoParaguay vs France | 0.223 | 1 |
| 2026-07-03__2026-07-04 | 2026-07-04 | Argentina vs Cape VerdeAustralia vs EgyptColombia vs Ghana | 0.223 | 0 |
| 2026-07-02__2026-07-03 | 2026-07-03 | Portugal vs CroatiaSpain vs AustriaSwitzerland vs Algeria | 0.231 | 1 |
| 2026-07-01__2026-07-02 | 2026-07-02 | Belgium vs SenegalEngland vs DR CongoUnited States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.158 | 1 |
| 2026-06-30__2026-07-01 | 2026-07-01 | France vs SwedenIvory Coast vs NorwayMexico vs Ecuador | 0.230 | 1 |
| 2026-06-29__2026-06-30 | 2026-06-30 | Brazil vs JapanGermany vs ParaguayNetherlands vs Morocco | 0.664 | 0 |
| 2026-06-28__2026-06-29 | 2026-06-29 | South Africa vs Canada | 0.180 | 1 |
| 2026-06-27__2026-06-28 | 2026-06-28 | Algeria vs AustriaColombia vs PortugalDR Congo vs UzbekistanGhana vs CroatiaJordan vs ArgentinaPanama vs England | 0.429 | 0 |
| 2026-06-26__2026-06-27 | 2026-06-27 | Cape Verde vs Saudi ArabiaEgypt vs IranNew Zealand vs BelgiumNorway vs FranceSenegal vs IraqUruguay vs Spain | 0.414 | 1 |
| 2026-06-25__2026-06-26 | 2026-06-26 | Curacao vs Ivory CoastEcuador vs GermanyJapan vs SwedenParaguay vs AustraliaTunisia vs NetherlandsTurkiye vs United States | 0.585 | 0 |
| 2026-06-24__2026-06-25 | 2026-06-25 | Bosnia and Herzegovina vs QatarCzechia vs MexicoMorocco vs HaitiScotland vs BrazilSouth Africa vs South KoreaSwitzerland vs Canada | 0.420 | 0 |
| 2026-06-23__2026-06-24 | 2026-06-24 | Colombia vs DR CongoEngland vs GhanaPanama vs CroatiaPortugal vs Uzbekistan | 0.422 | 0 |
| 2026-06-22__2026-06-23 | 2026-06-23 | Argentina vs AustriaFrance vs IraqJordan vs AlgeriaNorway vs Senegal | 0.297 | 0 |
| 2026-06-21__2026-06-22 | 2026-06-22 | Belgium vs IranNew Zealand vs EgyptSpain vs Saudi ArabiaUruguay vs Cape Verde | 0.560 | 1 |
| 2026-06-20__2026-06-21 | 2026-06-21 | Ecuador vs CuracaoGermany vs Ivory CoastNetherlands vs SwedenTunisia vs Japan | 0.536 | 0 |
| 2026-06-19__2026-06-20 | 2026-06-20 | Brazil vs HaitiScotland vs MoroccoTurkiye vs ParaguayUnited States vs Australia | 0.408 | 0 |
| 2026-06-18__2026-06-19 | 2026-06-19 | Canada vs QatarCzechia vs South AfricaMexico vs South KoreaSwitzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.481 | 0 |
| 2026-06-17__2026-06-18 | 2026-06-18 | England vs CroatiaGhana vs PanamaPortugal vs DR CongoUzbekistan vs Colombia | 0.542 | 1 |
| Totals | 84 matches | 0.422 | 13 | |
| Call | Match | Prediction | Prob | Market prob | Mkt Δ | Market read | Actual | Outcome Points | Brier | Brier status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Correct | Spain vs Argentina 2026-07-19_SPA_ARG | Spain win | 53% | No Data | No Data | Market-aligned | Spain 1-0 | 1 | 0.442 | Computed |
| Missed | France vs England 2026-07-18_FRA_ENG | France win | 54% | No Data | No Data | Market-aligned | England France 4-6 England | 0 | 0.583 | Computed |
| Missed | England vs Argentina 2026-07-15_ENG_ARG | England win | 55% | 57% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | Argentina England 1-2 Argentina | 0 | 0.605 | Computed |
| Missed | France vs Spain 2026-07-14_FRA_ESP | France win | 58% | 59% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Spain France 0-2 Spain | 0 | 0.673 | Computed |
| Correct | Argentina vs Switzerland 2026-07-11_ARG_SUI | Argentina win | 67% | 69% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | Argentina Argentina 3-1 Switzerland after extra time | 1 | 0.218 | Computed |
| Correct | Norway vs England 2026-07-11_NOR_ENG | England win | 62% | 65% | -3 pts | Market-aligned | England Norway 1-2 England after extra time | 1 | 0.289 | Computed |
| Correct | Spain vs Belgium 2026-07-10_ESP_BEL | Spain win | 68% | 72% | -4 pts | Market-aligned | Spain Spain 2-1 Belgium | 1 | 0.205 | Computed |
| Correct | France vs Morocco 2026-07-09_FRA_MAR | France win | 66% | 66% | +0 pts | Market-aligned | France France 2-0 Morocco | 1 | 0.231 | Computed |
| Correct | Argentina vs Egypt 2026-07-07_ARG_EGY | Argentina win | 74% | 75% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Argentina Argentina 3-2 Egypt | 1 | 0.135 | Computed |
| Missed | Switzerland vs Colombia 2026-07-07_SUI_COL | Colombia win | 56% | 59% | -3 pts | Market-aligned | Switzerland Switzerland 0-0 Colombia (Switzerland won 4-3 on penalties) | 0 | 0.627 | Computed |
| Correct | Portugal vs Spain 2026-07-06_POR_ESP | Spain win | 63% | 67% | -4 pts | Market-aligned | Spain Portugal 0-1 Spain | 1 | 0.274 | Computed |
| Missed | United States vs Belgium 2026-07-06_USA_BEL | United States win | 56% | 57% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Belgium United States 1-4 Belgium | 0 | 0.627 | Computed |
| Missed | Brazil vs Norway 2026-07-05_BRA_NOR | Brazil win | 68% | 73% | -5 pts | Independent / divergent | Norway Brazil 1-2 Norway | 0 | 0.925 | Computed |
| Correct | Mexico vs England 2026-07-05_MEX_ENG | England win | 55% | 61% | -6 pts | Independent / divergent | England Mexico 2-3 England | 1 | 0.405 | Computed |
| Correct | Canada vs Morocco 2026-07-04_CAN_MAR | Morocco win | 62% | 69% | -7 pts | Independent / divergent | Morocco Canada 0-3 Morocco | 1 | 0.289 | Computed |
| Correct | Paraguay vs France 2026-07-04_PAR_FRA | France win | 72% | 80% | -8 pts | Independent / divergent | France Paraguay 0-1 France | 1 | 0.157 | Computed |
| Correct | Argentina vs Cape Verde 2026-07-03_ARG_CPV | Argentina win | 82% | 87% | -5 pts | Independent / divergent | Argentina Argentina 3-2 Cape Verde after extra time | 1 | 0.065 | Computed |
| Correct | Australia vs Egypt 2026-07-03_AUS_EGY | Egypt win | 54% | 55% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Egypt Australia 1-1 Egypt; Egypt won 4-2 on penalties | 1 | 0.423 | Computed |
| Correct | Colombia vs Ghana 2026-07-03_COL_GHA | Colombia win | 70% | 78% | -8 pts | Independent / divergent | Colombia Colombia 1-0 Ghana | 1 | 0.180 | Computed |
| Correct | Portugal vs Croatia 2026-07-02_POR_CRO | Portugal win | 64% | 67% | -3 pts | Market-aligned | Portugal Portugal 2-1 Croatia | 1 | 0.259 | Computed |
| Correct | Spain vs Austria 2026-07-02_ESP_AUT | Spain win | 85% | 88% | -3 pts | Market-aligned | Spain Spain 3-0 Austria | 1 | 0.045 | Computed |
| Correct | Switzerland vs Algeria 2026-07-02_SUI_DZA | Switzerland win | 56% | 55% | +1 pts | Market-aligned | Switzerland Switzerland 2-0 Algeria | 1 | 0.387 | Computed |
| Correct | Belgium vs Senegal 2026-07-01_BEL_SEN | Belgium win | 59% | 58% | +1 pts | Market-aligned | Belgium Belgium 3-2 Senegal (AET) | 1 | 0.336 | Computed |
| Correct | England vs DR Congo 2026-07-01_ENG_COD | England win | 82% | 84% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | England England 2-1 DR Congo | 1 | 0.065 | Computed |
| Correct | United States vs Bosnia and Herzegovina 2026-07-01_USA_BIH | United States win | 81% | 82% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | United States United States 2-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1 | 0.072 | Computed |
| Correct | France vs Sweden 2026-06-30_FRA_SWE | France win | 84% | 84% | +0 pts | Market-aligned | France France 3-0 Sweden | 1 | 0.051 | Computed |
| Correct | Ivory Coast vs Norway 2026-06-30_CIV_NOR | Norway win | 60% | 61% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Norway Ivory Coast 1-2 Norway | 1 | 0.320 | Computed |
| Correct | Mexico vs Ecuador 2026-06-30_MEX_ECU | Mexico win | 60% | 60% | +0 pts | Market-aligned | Mexico Mexico 2-0 Ecuador | 1 | 0.320 | Computed |
| Correct | Brazil vs Japan 2026-06-29_BRA_JPN | Brazil win | 66% | 66% | +0 pts | Market-aligned | Brazil Brazil 2-1 Japan | 1 | 0.231 | Computed |
| Missed | Germany vs Paraguay 2026-06-29_GER_PAR | Germany win | 76% | 78% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | Paraguay Germany 1-1 Paraguay; Paraguay won 4-3 on penalties | 0 | 1.155 | Computed |
| Missed | Netherlands vs Morocco 2026-06-29_NED_MAR | Netherlands win | 55% | 56% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Morocco Netherlands 1-1 Morocco; Morocco won 3-2 on penalties | 0 | 0.605 | Computed |
| Correct | South Africa vs Canada 2026-06-28_RSA_CAN | Canada win | 70% | No Data | No Data | Market-aligned | Canada South Africa 0-1 Canada | 1 | 0.180 | Computed |
| Correct | Algeria vs Austria 2026-06-27_DZA_AUT | Draw | 39% | 42% | -3 pts | Market-aligned | Draw Algeria 3-3 Austria | 1 | 0.559 | Computed |
| Missed | Colombia vs Portugal 2026-06-27_COL_POR | Portugal win | 47% | 46% | +1 pts | Market-aligned | Draw Colombia 0-0 Portugal | 0 | 0.783 | Computed |
| Correct | DR Congo vs Uzbekistan 2026-06-27_COD_UZB | DR Congo win | 52% | 54% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | DR Congo DR Congo 3-1 Uzbekistan | 1 | 0.347 | Computed |
| Missed | Ghana vs Croatia 2026-06-27_GHA_CRO | Draw | 36% | 30% | +6 pts | Independent / divergent | Croatia Ghana 1-2 Croatia | 0 | 0.655 | Computed |
| Correct | Jordan vs Argentina 2026-06-27_JOR_ARG | Argentina win | 72% | 78% | -6 pts | Independent / divergent | Argentina Jordan 1-3 Argentina | 1 | 0.123 | Computed |
| Correct | Panama vs England 2026-06-27_PAN_ENG | England win | 74% | 85% | -11 pts | Independent / divergent | England Panama 0-2 England | 1 | 0.106 | Computed |
| Missed | Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia 2026-06-26_CPV_KSA | Cape Verde win | 36% | 37% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Draw Cape Verde 0-0 Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0.715 | Computed |
| Missed | Egypt vs Iran 2026-06-26_EGY_IRN | Egypt win | 39% | 40% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Draw Egypt 1-1 Iran | 0 | 0.642 | Computed |
| Correct | New Zealand vs Belgium 2026-06-26_NZL_BEL | Belgium win | 67% | 72% | -5 pts | Independent / divergent | Belgium New Zealand 1-5 Belgium | 1 | 0.167 | Computed |
| Correct | Norway vs France 2026-06-26_NOR_FRA | France win | 49% | 50% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | France Norway 1-4 France | 1 | 0.396 | Computed |
| Correct | Senegal vs Iraq 2026-06-26_SEN_IRQ | Senegal win | 57% | 60% | -3 pts | Market-aligned | Senegal Senegal 5-0 Iraq | 1 | 0.280 | Computed |
| Correct | Uruguay vs Spain 2026-06-26_URU_ESP | Spain win | 57% | 58% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Spain Uruguay 0-1 Spain | 1 | 0.281 | Computed |
| Correct | Curacao vs Ivory Coast 2026-06-25_CUW_CIV | Ivory Coast win | 68% | 80% | -12 pts | Independent / divergent | Ivory Coast Curacao 0-2 Ivory Coast | 1 | 0.159 | Computed |
| Missed | Ecuador vs Germany 2026-06-25_ECU_GER | Germany win | 51% | 57% | -6 pts | Independent / divergent | Ecuador Ecuador 2-1 Germany | 0 | 0.963 | Computed |
| Missed | Japan vs Sweden 2026-06-25_JPN_SWE | Japan win | 47% | 50% | -3 pts | Market-aligned | Draw Japan 1-1 Sweden | 0 | 0.802 | Computed |
| Correct | Paraguay vs Australia 2026-06-25_PAR_AUS | Draw | 35% | 29% | +6 pts | Independent / divergent | Draw Paraguay 0-0 Australia | 1 | 0.634 | Computed |
| Correct | Tunisia vs Netherlands 2026-06-25_TUN_NED | Netherlands win | 78% | 87% | -9 pts | Independent / divergent | Netherlands Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands | 1 | 0.076 | Computed |
| Missed | Turkiye vs United States 2026-06-25_TUR_USA | United States win | 46% | 48% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | Turkiye Turkiye 3-2 United States | 0 | 0.879 | Computed |
| Correct | Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar 2026-06-24_BIH_QAT | Bosnia and Herzegovina win | 62% | 60% | +2 pts | Market-aligned | Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and Herzegovina 3-1 Qatar | 1 | 0.220 | Computed |
| Correct | Czechia vs Mexico 2026-06-24_CZE_MEX | Mexico win | 48% | No Data | No Data | Market-aligned | Mexico Czechia 0-3 Mexico | 1 | 0.409 | Computed |
| Correct | Morocco vs Haiti 2026-06-24_MAR_HTI | Morocco win | 74% | No Data | No Data | Market-aligned | Morocco Morocco 4-2 Haiti | 1 | 0.106 | Computed |
| Correct | Scotland vs Brazil 2026-06-24_SCO_BRA | Brazil win | 63% | No Data | No Data | Market-aligned | Brazil Scotland 0-3 Brazil | 1 | 0.211 | Computed |
| Missed | South Africa vs South Korea 2026-06-24_RSA_KOR | South Korea win | 53% | 54% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | South Africa South Africa 1-0 South Korea | 0 | 1.015 | Computed |
| Correct | Switzerland vs Canada 2026-06-24_SUI_CAN | Switzerland win | 39% | 46% | -7 pts | Independent / divergent | Switzerland Switzerland 2-1 Canada | 1 | 0.558 | Computed |
| Correct | Colombia vs DR Congo 2026-06-23_COL_COD | Colombia win | 55% | 64% | -9 pts | Independent / divergent | Colombia Colombia 1-0 DR Congo | 1 | 0.306 | Computed |
| Missed | England vs Ghana 2026-06-23_ENG_GHA | England win | 60% | 79% | -19 pts | Independent / divergent | Draw England 0-0 Ghana | 0 | 0.945 | Computed |
| Correct | Panama vs Croatia 2026-06-23_PAN_CRO | Croatia win | 59% | 63% | -4 pts | Market-aligned | Croatia Panama 0-1 Croatia | 1 | 0.256 | Computed |
| Correct | Portugal vs Uzbekistan 2026-06-23_POR_UZB | Portugal win | 66% | 74% | -8 pts | Independent / divergent | Portugal Portugal 5-0 Uzbekistan | 1 | 0.181 | Computed |
| Correct | Argentina vs Austria 2026-06-22_ARG_AUT | Argentina win | 58% | 58% | +0 pts | Market-aligned | Argentina Argentina 2-0 Austria | 1 | 0.268 | Computed |
| Correct | France vs Iraq 2026-06-22_FRA_IRQ | France win | 79% | 86% | -7 pts | Independent / divergent | France France 3-0 Iraq | 1 | 0.070 | Computed |
| Correct | Jordan vs Algeria 2026-06-22_JOR_DZA | Algeria win | 52% | 58% | -6 pts | Independent / divergent | Algeria Jordan 1-2 Algeria | 1 | 0.347 | Computed |
| Correct | Norway vs Senegal 2026-06-22_NOR_SEN | Norway win | 42% | 43% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Norway Norway 3-2 Senegal | 1 | 0.505 | Computed |
| Missed | Belgium vs Iran 2026-06-21_BEL_IRN | Belgium win | 56% | 68% | -12 pts | Independent / divergent | Draw Belgium 0-0 Iran | 0 | 0.912 | Computed |
| Correct | New Zealand vs Egypt 2026-06-21_NZL_EGY | Egypt win | 50% | 60% | -10 pts | Independent / divergent | Egypt New Zealand 1-3 Egypt | 1 | 0.378 | Computed |
| Correct | Spain vs Saudi Arabia 2026-06-21_ESP_KSA | Spain win | 71% | 87% | -16 pts | Independent / divergent | Spain Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia | 1 | 0.132 | Computed |
| Missed | Uruguay vs Cape Verde 2026-06-21_URU_CPV | Uruguay win | 53% | 65% | -12 pts | Independent / divergent | Draw Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde | 0 | 0.817 | Computed |
| Missed | Ecuador vs Curacao 2026-06-20_ECU_CUW | Ecuador win | 66% | 74% | -8 pts | Independent / divergent | Draw Ecuador 0-0 Curacao | 0 | 1.041 | Computed |
| Correct | Germany vs Ivory Coast 2026-06-20_GER_CIV | Germany win | 55% | 61% | -6 pts | Independent / divergent | Germany Germany 2-1 Ivory Coast | 1 | 0.305 | Computed |
| Correct | Netherlands vs Sweden 2026-06-20_NED_SWE | Netherlands win | 42% | 59% | -17 pts | Independent / divergent | Netherlands Netherlands 5-1 Sweden | 1 | 0.505 | Computed |
| Correct | Tunisia vs Japan 2026-06-20_TUN_JPN | Japan win | 56% | 65% | -9 pts | Independent / divergent | Japan Tunisia 0-4 Japan | 1 | 0.294 | Computed |
| Correct | Brazil vs Haiti 2026-06-19_BRA_HTI | Brazil win | 78% | 86% | -8 pts | Independent / divergent | Brazil Brazil 3-0 Haiti | 1 | 0.076 | Computed |
| Correct | Scotland vs Morocco 2026-06-19_SCO_MAR | Morocco win | 50% | 47% | +3 pts | Market-aligned | Morocco Scotland 0-1 Morocco | 1 | 0.378 | Computed |
| Missed | Turkiye vs Paraguay 2026-06-19_TUR_PAR | Turkiye win | 43% | 43% | +1 pts | Market-aligned | Paraguay Turkiye 0-1 Paraguay | 0 | 0.787 | Computed |
| Correct | United States vs Australia 2026-06-19_USA_AUS | United States win | 49% | 62% | -13 pts | Independent / divergent | United States United States 2-0 Australia | 1 | 0.391 | Computed |
| Correct | Canada vs Qatar 2026-06-18_CAN_QAT | Team A win | 55% | No Data | No Data | Market-aligned | Team A win | 1 | 0.308 | Computed |
| Missed | Czechia vs South Africa 2026-06-18_CZE_RSA | Team A win | 50% | No Data | No Data | Market-aligned | Draw | 0 | 0.817 | Computed |
| Correct | Mexico vs South Korea 2026-06-18_MEX_KOR | Team A win | 45% | No Data | No Data | Market-aligned | Team A win | 1 | 0.454 | Computed |
| Correct | Switzerland vs Bosnia and Herzegovina 2026-06-18_SUI_BIH | Team A win | 52% | No Data | No Data | Market-aligned | Team A win | 1 | 0.347 | Computed |
| Correct | England vs Croatia 2026-06-17_ENG_CRO | England win | 54% | No Data | No Data | Market-aligned | England win: England 4-2 Croatia | 1 | 0.319 | Computed |
| Correct | Ghana vs Panama 2026-06-17_GHA_PAN | Ghana win | 44% | No Data | No Data | Market-aligned | Ghana win: Ghana 1-0 Panama | 1 | 0.471 | Computed |
| Missed | Portugal vs DR Congo 2026-06-17_POR_DRC | Portugal win | 68% | No Data | No Data | Market-aligned | Draw: Portugal 1-1 DR Congo | 0 | 1.099 | Computed |
| Correct | Uzbekistan vs Colombia 2026-06-17_UZB_COL | Colombia win | 57% | No Data | No Data | Market-aligned | Colombia win: Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia | 1 | 0.281 | Computed |
| Totals | 61 | 0.422 | 84 computed | |||||||
Claude
84 evaluated matches
Forecast Cycle Scores (Daily Brier Bonus)
| Forecast Cycle | Match Date | Matches | Daily Brier | Daily Brier Bonus Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19__CONTEST_FINAL | CONTEST_FINAL | Spain vs Argentina | 0.520 | 0 |
| 2026-07-18__2026-07-19 | 2026-07-19 | France vs England | 0.673 | 0 |
| 2026-07-15__2026-07-18 | 2026-07-18 | England vs Argentina | 0.370 | 1 |
| 2026-07-14__2026-07-15 | 2026-07-15 | France vs Spain | 0.520 | 1 |
| 2026-07-11__2026-07-14 | 2026-07-14 | Argentina vs SwitzerlandNorway vs England | 0.244 | 0 |
| 2026-07-10__2026-07-11 | 2026-07-11 | Spain vs Belgium | 0.274 | 0 |
| 2026-07-09__2026-07-10 | 2026-07-10 | France vs Morocco | 0.274 | 0 |
| 2026-07-07__2026-07-09 | 2026-07-09 | Argentina vs EgyptColombia vs Switzerland | 0.376 | 1 |
| 2026-07-06__2026-07-07 | 2026-07-07 | Spain vs PortugalUnited States vs Belgium | 0.400 | 1 |
| 2026-07-05__2026-07-06 | 2026-07-06 | Brazil vs NorwayMexico vs England | 0.666 | 0 |
| 2026-07-04__2026-07-05 | 2026-07-05 | Canada vs MoroccoFrance vs Paraguay | 0.256 | 0 |
| 2026-07-03__2026-07-04 | 2026-07-04 | Argentina vs Cape VerdeAustralia vs EgyptColombia vs Ghana | 0.218 | 1 |
| 2026-07-02__2026-07-03 | 2026-07-03 | Portugal vs CroatiaSpain vs AustriaSwitzerland vs Algeria | 0.315 | 0 |
| 2026-07-01__2026-07-02 | 2026-07-02 | Belgium vs SenegalEngland vs DR CongoUnited States vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | 0.296 | 0 |
| 2026-06-30__2026-07-01 | 2026-07-01 | France vs SwedenIvory Coast vs NorwayMexico vs Ecuador | 0.314 | 0 |
| 2026-06-29__2026-06-30 | 2026-06-30 | Brazil vs JapanGermany vs ParaguayNetherlands vs Morocco | 0.586 | 0 |
| 2026-06-28__2026-06-29 | 2026-06-29 | South Africa vs Canada | 0.320 | 0 |
| 2026-06-27__2026-06-28 | 2026-06-28 | Algeria vs AustriaColombia vs PortugalCroatia vs GhanaDR Congo vs UzbekistanJordan vs ArgentinaPanama vs England | 0.459 | 0 |
| 2026-06-26__2026-06-27 | 2026-06-27 | Cabo Verde vs Saudi ArabiaEgypt vs IranNew Zealand vs BelgiumNorway vs FranceSenegal vs IraqUruguay vs Spain | 0.518 | 0 |
| 2026-06-25__2026-06-26 | 2026-06-26 | Curacao vs Ivory CoastEcuador vs GermanyJapan vs SwedenParaguay vs AustraliaTunisia vs NetherlandsTurkey vs United States | 0.620 | 0 |
| 2026-06-24__2026-06-25 | 2026-06-25 | Bosnia & Herzegovina vs QatarCzechia vs MexicoMorocco vs HaitiScotland vs BrazilSouth Africa vs South KoreaSwitzerland vs Canada | 0.413 | 1 |
| 2026-06-23__2026-06-24 | 2026-06-24 | Colombia vs DR CongoEngland vs GhanaPanama vs CroatiaPortugal vs Uzbekistan | 0.441 | 0 |
| 2026-06-22__2026-06-23 | 2026-06-23 | Argentina vs AustriaFrance vs IraqJordan vs AlgeriaNorway vs Senegal | 0.289 | 1 |
| 2026-06-21__2026-06-22 | 2026-06-22 | Belgium vs IranNew Zealand vs EgyptSpain vs Saudi ArabiaUruguay vs Cabo Verde | 0.575 | 0 |
| 2026-06-20__2026-06-21 | 2026-06-21 | Ecuador vs CuracaoGermany vs Ivory CoastNetherlands vs SwedenTunisia vs Japan | 0.525 | 1 |
| 2026-06-19__2026-06-20 | 2026-06-20 | Brazil vs HaitiScotland vs MoroccoTurkey vs ParaguayUnited States vs Australia | 0.376 | 1 |
| 2026-06-18__2026-06-19 | 2026-06-19 | Canada vs QatarCzechia vs South AfricaMexico vs South KoreaSwitzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina | 0.396 | 1 |
| 2026-06-17__2026-06-18 | 2026-06-18 | England vs CroatiaGhana vs PanamaPortugal vs DR CongoUzbekistan vs Colombia | 0.573 | 0 |
| Totals | 84 matches | 0.438 | 10 | |
| Call | Match | Prediction | Prob | Market prob | Mkt Δ | Market read | Actual | Outcome Points | Brier | Brier status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missed | Spain vs Argentina 2026-07-19_ESP_ARG | Argentina win | 51% | 43% | +8 pts | Independent / divergent | Spain 1-0 | 0 | 0.520 | Computed |
| Missed | France vs England 2026-07-18_FRA_ENG | France win | 58% | 55% | +3 pts | Market-aligned | England France lost to England in a 10-goal third-place thriller (reported ~4-6); England claimed bronze | 0 | 0.673 | Computed |
| Correct | England vs Argentina 2026-07-15_ENG_ARG | Argentina win | 57% | 58% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Argentina England 1-2 Argentina (Gordon 55'; Fernandez 85', Lautaro Martinez 90+2', both assisted by Messi) | 1 | 0.370 | Computed |
| Missed | France vs Spain 2026-07-14_FRA_ESP | France win | 51% | 52% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Spain France 0-2 Spain (Oyarzabal pen 22', Porro 58') | 0 | 0.520 | Computed |
| Correct | Argentina vs Switzerland 2026-07-11_ARG_SUI | Argentina win | 74% | 74% | +0 pts | Market-aligned | Argentina Argentina 3-1 Switzerland (a.e.t.; Mac Allister 10', Alvarez 112', Lautaro 120+; Ndoye 67') | 1 | 0.135 | Computed |
| Correct | Norway vs England 2026-07-11_NOR_ENG | England win | 58% | 59% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | England Norway 1-2 England (a.e.t.; Schjelderup; Bellingham 45', ET) | 1 | 0.353 | Computed |
| Correct | Spain vs Belgium 2026-07-10_ESP_BEL | Spain win | 63% | 64% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Spain Spain 2-1 Belgium (F. Ruiz 30', Merino 88'; De Ketelaere 41') | 1 | 0.274 | Computed |
| Correct | France vs Morocco 2026-07-09_FRA_MAR | France win | 63% | 64% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | France France 2-0 Morocco (Mbappe 60', Dembele 66') | 1 | 0.274 | Computed |
| Correct | Argentina vs Egypt 2026-07-07_ARG_EGY | Argentina win | 80% | 80% | +0 pts | Market-aligned | Argentina Argentina 3-2 Egypt (Romero 79', Messi 83', Enzo 90+; from 2-0 down) | 1 | 0.080 | Computed |
| Missed | Colombia vs Switzerland 2026-07-07_COL_SUI | Colombia win | 58% | 57% | +1 pts | Market-aligned | Switzerland Colombia 0-0 Switzerland (Switzerland 4-3 pens) | 0 | 0.673 | Computed |
| Correct | Spain vs Portugal 2026-07-06_ESP_POR | Spain win | 60% | 59% | +1 pts | Market-aligned | Spain Spain 1-0 Portugal (Merino 90+1') | 1 | 0.320 | Computed |
| Correct | United States vs Belgium 2026-07-06_USA_BEL | Belgium win | 51% | 52% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Belgium United States 1-4 Belgium (De Ketelaere 2, Vanaken, Lukaku) | 1 | 0.480 | Computed |
| Missed | Brazil vs Norway 2026-07-05_BRA_NOR | Brazil win | 66% | 67% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Norway Brazil 1-2 Norway (Haaland 79', 90'; Neymar pen 90+) | 0 | 0.871 | Computed |
| Correct | Mexico vs England 2026-07-05_MEX_ENG | England win | 52% | 53% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | England Mexico 2-3 England (Kane pen; England 10 men) | 1 | 0.461 | Computed |
| Correct | Canada vs Morocco 2026-07-04_CAN_MAR | Morocco win | 56% | 57% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Morocco Canada 0-3 Morocco (Ounahi 2, Rahimi) | 1 | 0.387 | Computed |
| Correct | France vs Paraguay 2026-07-04_FRA_PAR | France win | 75% | 76% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | France France 1-0 Paraguay (Mbappe pen 70') | 1 | 0.125 | Computed |
| Correct | Argentina vs Cape Verde 2026-07-03_ARG_CPV | Argentina win | 85% | 86% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Argentina Argentina 3-2 Cape Verde (a.e.t., 111' OG) | 1 | 0.045 | Computed |
| Correct | Australia vs Egypt 2026-07-03_AUS_EGY | Egypt win | 55% | 56% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Egypt Australia 1-1 Egypt (Egypt 4-2 pens) | 1 | 0.405 | Computed |
| Correct | Colombia vs Ghana 2026-07-03_COL_GHA | Colombia win | 68% | 70% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | Colombia Colombia 1-0 Ghana | 1 | 0.205 | Computed |
| Correct | Portugal vs Croatia 2026-07-02_POR_CRO | Portugal win | 54% | 55% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Portugal Portugal 2-1 Croatia (G. Ramos 90+) | 1 | 0.423 | Computed |
| Correct | Spain vs Austria 2026-07-02_ESP_AUT | Spain win | 74% | 76% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | Spain Spain 3-0 Austria (Oyarzabal 2, Porro) | 1 | 0.135 | Computed |
| Correct | Switzerland vs Algeria 2026-07-02_SUI_ALG | Switzerland win | 56% | 57% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Switzerland Switzerland 2-0 Algeria (Embolo) | 1 | 0.387 | Computed |
| Correct | Belgium vs Senegal 2026-07-01_BEL_SEN | Belgium win | 53% | 54% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Belgium Belgium 3-2 Senegal (a.e.t., Tielemans pen) | 1 | 0.442 | Computed |
| Correct | England vs DR Congo 2026-07-01_ENG_COD | England win | 72% | 74% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | England England 2-1 DR Congo (Kane 75', 86') | 1 | 0.157 | Computed |
| Correct | United States vs Bosnia & Herzegovina 2026-07-01_USA_BIH | United States win | 62% | 63% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | United States United States 2-0 Bosnia (Balogun, Tillman) | 1 | 0.289 | Computed |
| Correct | France vs Sweden 2026-06-30_FRA_SWE | France win | 78% | 79% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | France France 3-0 Sweden (Mbappe brace) | 1 | 0.097 | Computed |
| Correct | Ivory Coast vs Norway 2026-06-30_CIV_NOR | Norway win | 54% | 55% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Norway Ivory Coast 1-2 Norway (Haaland 86') | 1 | 0.423 | Computed |
| Correct | Mexico vs Ecuador 2026-06-30_MEX_ECU | Mexico win | 54% | 56% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | Mexico Mexico 2-0 Ecuador (Quinones, Jimenez) | 1 | 0.423 | Computed |
| Correct | Brazil vs Japan 2026-06-29_BRA_JPN | Brazil win | 68% | 69% | -1 pts | Market-aligned | Brazil Brazil 2-1 Japan (Martinelli 90+) | 1 | 0.205 | Computed |
| Missed | Germany vs Paraguay 2026-06-29_GER_PAR | Germany win | 68% | 70% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | Paraguay Germany 1-1 Paraguay (Paraguay 4-3 pens) | 0 | 0.925 | Computed |
| Missed | Netherlands vs Morocco 2026-06-29_NED_MAR | Netherlands win | 56% | 56% | +0 pts | Market-aligned | Morocco Netherlands 1-1 Morocco (Morocco 3-2 pens) | 0 | 0.627 | Computed |
| Correct | South Africa vs Canada 2026-06-28_RSA_CAN | Canada win | 60% | 60% | +0 pts | Market-aligned | Canada South Africa 0-1 Canada (Eustaquio 90+2') | 1 | 0.320 | Computed |
| Missed | Algeria vs Austria 2026-06-27_ALG_AUT | Algeria win | 39% | 42% | -3 pts | Market-aligned | Draw Algeria 3-3 Austria | 0 | 0.759 | Computed |
| Missed | Colombia vs Portugal 2026-06-27_COL_POR | Portugal win | 38% | 45% | -7 pts | Independent / divergent | Draw Colombia 0-0 Portugal | 0 | 0.737 | Computed |
| Correct | Croatia vs Ghana 2026-06-27_CRO_GHA | Croatia win | 44% | 50% | -6 pts | Independent / divergent | Croatia Croatia 2-1 Ghana | 1 | 0.470 | Computed |
| Correct | DR Congo vs Uzbekistan 2026-06-27_COD_UZB | DR Congo win | 46% | 50% | -4 pts | Market-aligned | DR Congo DR Congo 3-1 Uzbekistan | 1 | 0.438 | Computed |
| Correct | Jordan vs Argentina 2026-06-27_JOR_ARG | Argentina win | 68% | 80% | -12 pts | Independent / divergent | Argentina Jordan 1-3 Argentina | 1 | 0.161 | Computed |
| Correct | Panama vs England 2026-06-27_PAN_ENG | England win | 65% | 72% | -7 pts | Independent / divergent | England Panama 0-2 England | 1 | 0.188 | Computed |
| Missed | Cabo Verde vs Saudi Arabia 2026-06-26_CPV_KSA | Cabo Verde win | 40% | 44% | -4 pts | Market-aligned | Draw Cabo Verde 0-0 Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0.740 | Computed |
| Missed | Egypt vs Iran 2026-06-26_EGY_IRN | Egypt win | 42% | 48% | -6 pts | Independent / divergent | Draw Egypt 1-1 Iran | 0 | 0.765 | Computed |
| Correct | New Zealand vs Belgium 2026-06-26_NZL_BEL | Belgium win | 58% | 70% | -12 pts | Independent / divergent | Belgium New Zealand 1-5 Belgium | 1 | 0.268 | Computed |
| Correct | Norway vs France 2026-06-26_NOR_FRA | France win | 42% | 65% | -23 pts | Independent / divergent | France Norway 1-4 France | 1 | 0.505 | Computed |
| Correct | Senegal vs Iraq 2026-06-26_SEN_IRQ | Senegal win | 56% | 70% | -14 pts | Independent / divergent | Senegal Senegal 5-0 Iraq | 1 | 0.294 | Computed |
| Correct | Uruguay vs Spain 2026-06-26_URU_ESP | Spain win | 40% | 75% | -35 pts | Independent / divergent | Spain Uruguay 0-1 Spain | 1 | 0.540 | Computed |
| Correct | Curacao vs Ivory Coast 2026-06-25_CUW_CIV | Ivory Coast win | 58% | 66% | -8 pts | Independent / divergent | Ivory Coast Curacao 0-2 Ivory Coast | 1 | 0.270 | Computed |
| Missed | Ecuador vs Germany 2026-06-25_ECU_GER | Germany win | 48% | 74% | -26 pts | Independent / divergent | Ecuador Ecuador 2-1 Germany | 0 | 0.886 | Computed |
| Missed | Japan vs Sweden 2026-06-25_JPN_SWE | Japan win | 44% | 52% | -8 pts | Independent / divergent | Draw Japan 1-1 Sweden | 0 | 0.790 | Computed |
| Missed | Paraguay vs Australia 2026-06-25_PAR_AUS | Paraguay win | 36% | 40% | -4 pts | Market-aligned | Draw Paraguay 0-0 Australia | 0 | 0.735 | Computed |
| Correct | Tunisia vs Netherlands 2026-06-25_TUN_NED | Netherlands win | 56% | 58% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | Netherlands Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands | 1 | 0.295 | Computed |
| Missed | Turkey vs United States 2026-06-25_TUR_USA | United States win | 42% | 55% | -13 pts | Independent / divergent | Turkey Turkey 3-2 United States | 0 | 0.745 | Computed |
| Correct | Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar 2026-06-24_BIH_QAT | Bosnia & Herzegovina win | 58% | 60% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | Bosnia & Herzegovina Bosnia & Herzegovina 3-1 Qatar | 1 | 0.270 | Computed |
| Correct | Czechia vs Mexico 2026-06-24_CZE_MEX | Mexico win | 40% | 52% | -12 pts | Independent / divergent | Mexico Czechia 0-3 Mexico | 1 | 0.540 | Computed |
| Correct | Morocco vs Haiti 2026-06-24_MAR_HAI | Morocco win | 72% | 80% | -8 pts | Independent / divergent | Morocco Morocco 4-2 Haiti | 1 | 0.123 | Computed |
| Correct | Scotland vs Brazil 2026-06-24_SCO_BRA | Brazil win | 64% | 72% | -8 pts | Independent / divergent | Brazil Scotland 0-3 Brazil | 1 | 0.198 | Computed |
| Missed | South Africa vs South Korea 2026-06-24_RSA_KOR | South Korea win | 43% | 50% | -7 pts | Independent / divergent | South Africa South Africa 1-0 South Korea | 0 | 0.808 | Computed |
| Correct | Switzerland vs Canada 2026-06-24_SUI_CAN | Switzerland win | 40% | 42% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | Switzerland Switzerland 2-1 Canada | 1 | 0.540 | Computed |
| Correct | Colombia vs DR Congo 2026-06-23_COL_COD | Colombia win | 58% | 64% | -6 pts | Independent / divergent | Colombia Colombia 1-0 DR Congo | 1 | 0.270 | Computed |
| Missed | England vs Ghana 2026-06-23_ENG_GHA | England win | 63% | 66% | -3 pts | Market-aligned | Draw England 0-0 Ghana | 0 | 0.991 | Computed |
| Correct | Panama vs Croatia 2026-06-23_PAN_CRO | Croatia win | 51% | 58% | -7 pts | Independent / divergent | Croatia Panama 0-1 Croatia | 1 | 0.361 | Computed |
| Correct | Portugal vs Uzbekistan 2026-06-23_POR_UZB | Portugal win | 70% | 83% | -13 pts | Independent / divergent | Portugal Portugal 5-0 Uzbekistan | 1 | 0.142 | Computed |
| Correct | Argentina vs Austria 2026-06-22_ARG_AUT | Argentina win | 66% | 66% | +0 pts | Market-aligned | Argentina Argentina 2-0 Austria | 1 | 0.178 | Computed |
| Correct | France vs Iraq 2026-06-22_FRA_IRQ | France win | 84% | 93% | -9 pts | Independent / divergent | France France 3-0 Iraq | 1 | 0.042 | Computed |
| Correct | Jordan vs Algeria 2026-06-22_JOR_ALG | Algeria win | 54% | 65% | -11 pts | Independent / divergent | Algeria Jordan 1-2 Algeria | 1 | 0.321 | Computed |
| Correct | Norway vs Senegal 2026-06-22_NOR_SEN | Norway win | 36% | 44% | -8 pts | Independent / divergent | Norway Norway 3-2 Senegal | 1 | 0.616 | Computed |
| Missed | Belgium vs Iran 2026-06-21_BEL_IRN | Belgium win | 58% | 68% | -10 pts | Independent / divergent | Draw Belgium 0-0 Iran | 0 | 0.892 | Computed |
| Correct | New Zealand vs Egypt 2026-06-21_NZL_EGY | Egypt win | 47% | 58% | -11 pts | Independent / divergent | Egypt New Zealand 1-3 Egypt | 1 | 0.424 | Computed |
| Correct | Spain vs Saudi Arabia 2026-06-21_ESP_KSA | Spain win | 72% | 88% | -16 pts | Independent / divergent | Spain Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia | 1 | 0.125 | Computed |
| Missed | Uruguay vs Cabo Verde 2026-06-21_URU_CPV | Uruguay win | 56% | 66% | -10 pts | Independent / divergent | Draw Uruguay 2-2 Cabo Verde | 0 | 0.858 | Computed |
| Missed | Ecuador vs Curacao 2026-06-20_ECU_CUW | Ecuador win | 74% | 85% | -11 pts | Independent / divergent | Draw Ecuador 0-0 Curacao | 0 | 1.226 | Computed |
| Correct | Germany vs Ivory Coast 2026-06-20_GER_CIV | Germany win | 62% | 65% | -3 pts | Market-aligned | Germany Germany 2-1 Ivory Coast | 1 | 0.222 | Computed |
| Correct | Netherlands vs Sweden 2026-06-20_NED_SWE | Netherlands win | 54% | 62% | -8 pts | Independent / divergent | Netherlands Netherlands 5-1 Sweden | 1 | 0.319 | Computed |
| Correct | Tunisia vs Japan 2026-06-20_TUN_JPN | Japan win | 53% | 60% | -7 pts | Independent / divergent | Japan Tunisia 0-4 Japan | 1 | 0.334 | Computed |
| Correct | Brazil vs Haiti 2026-06-19_BRA_HAI | Brazil win | 85% | 89% | -4 pts | Market-aligned | Brazil Brazil 3-0 Haiti | 1 | 0.036 | Computed |
| Correct | Scotland vs Morocco 2026-06-19_SCO_MAR | Morocco win | 47% | 57% | -10 pts | Independent / divergent | Morocco Scotland 0-1 Morocco | 1 | 0.423 | Computed |
| Missed | Turkey vs Paraguay 2026-06-19_TUR_PAR | Turkey win | 42% | 49% | -7 pts | Independent / divergent | Paraguay Turkey 0-1 Paraguay | 0 | 0.765 | Computed |
| Correct | United States vs Australia 2026-06-19_USA_AUS | United States win | 57% | 62% | -5 pts | Market-aligned | United States United States 2-0 Australia | 1 | 0.281 | Computed |
| Correct | Canada vs Qatar 2026-06-18_CAN_QAT | Team A win | 70% | No Data | +8 pts | Independent / divergent | Team A win | 1 | 0.140 | Computed |
| Missed | Czechia vs South Africa 2026-06-18_CZE_RSA | Team A win | 54% | No Data | +3 pts | Market-aligned | Draw | 0 | 0.861 | Computed |
| Correct | Mexico vs South Korea 2026-06-18_MEX_KOR | Team A win | 51% | No Data | +0 pts | Market-aligned | Team A win | 1 | 0.361 | Computed |
| Correct | Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina 2026-06-18_SUI_BIH | Team A win | 62% | No Data | +2 pts | Market-aligned | Team A win | 1 | 0.222 | Computed |
| Correct | England vs Croatia 2026-06-17_ENG_CRO | England win | 56% | No Data | +2 pts | Market-aligned | England win — England 4-2 Croatia (Kane x2, Bellingham, Rashford; Baturina, Musa) | 1 | 0.295 | Computed |
| Correct | Ghana vs Panama 2026-06-17_GHA_PAN | Ghana win | 42% | No Data | +3 pts | Market-aligned | Ghana win — Ghana 1-0 Panama (Yirenkyi 90+5') | 1 | 0.505 | Computed |
| Missed | Portugal vs DR Congo 2026-06-17_POR_DRC | Portugal win | 78% | No Data | +2 pts | Market-aligned | Draw — Portugal 1-1 DR Congo (Neves 6', Wissa 45+5') | 0 | 1.336 | Computed |
| Correct | Uzbekistan vs Colombia 2026-06-17_UZB_COL | Colombia win | 68% | No Data | +100 pts | Independent / divergent | Colombia win — Colombia 3-1 Uzbekistan (Muñoz, Diaz, Campaz; Fayzullaev) | 1 | 0.157 | Computed |
| Totals | 61 | 0.438 | 84 computed | |||||||
Gemini
84 evaluated matches
Forecast Cycle Scores (Daily Brier Bonus)
| Forecast Cycle | Match Date | Matches | Daily Brier | Daily Brier Bonus Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19__CONTEST_FINAL | CONTEST_FINAL | Spain vs Argentina | 0.541 | 0 |
| 2026-07-18__2026-07-19 | 2026-07-19 | France vs England | 0.605 | 0 |
| 2026-07-15__2026-07-18 | 2026-07-18 | Argentina vs England | 0.405 | 0 |
| 2026-07-14__2026-07-15 | 2026-07-15 | France vs Spain | 0.605 | 0 |
| 2026-07-11__2026-07-14 | 2026-07-14 | Argentina vs SwitzerlandNorway vs England | 0.212 | 1 |
| 2026-07-10__2026-07-11 | 2026-07-11 | Spain vs Belgium | 0.461 | 0 |
| 2026-07-09__2026-07-10 | 2026-07-10 | Morocco vs France | 0.845 | 0 |
| 2026-07-07__2026-07-09 | 2026-07-09 | Argentina vs EgyptSwitzerland vs Colombia | 0.455 | 0 |
| 2026-07-06__2026-07-07 | 2026-07-07 | Belgium vs USASpain vs Portugal | 0.501 | 0 |
| 2026-07-05__2026-07-06 | 2026-07-06 | Mexico vs EnglandNorway vs Brazil | 0.685 | 0 |
| 2026-07-04__2026-07-05 | 2026-07-05 | Canada vs MoroccoParaguay vs France | 0.242 | 0 |
| 2026-07-03__2026-07-04 | 2026-07-04 | Argentina vs Cape VerdeAustralia vs EgyptColombia vs Ghana | 0.235 | 0 |
| 2026-07-02__2026-07-03 | 2026-07-03 | Portugal vs CroatiaSpain vs AustriaSwitzerland vs Algeria | 0.370 | 0 |
| 2026-07-01__2026-07-02 | 2026-07-02 | Belgium vs SenegalEngland vs DR CongoUSA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.215 | 0 |
| 2026-06-30__2026-07-01 | 2026-07-01 | France vs SwedenIvory Coast vs NorwayMexico vs Ecuador | 0.283 | 0 |
| 2026-06-29__2026-06-30 | 2026-06-30 | Brazil vs JapanGermany vs ParaguayNetherlands vs Morocco | 0.570 | 1 |
| 2026-06-28__2026-06-29 | 2026-06-29 | South Africa vs Canada | 0.387 | 0 |
| 2026-06-27__2026-06-28 | 2026-06-28 | Algeria vs AustriaColombia vs PortugalCroatia vs GhanaDR Congo vs UzbekistanJordan vs ArgentinaPanama vs England | 0.393 | 1 |
| 2026-06-26__2026-06-27 | 2026-06-27 | Cape Verde vs Saudi ArabiaEgypt vs IranNew Zealand vs BelgiumNorway vs FranceSenegal vs IraqUruguay vs Spain | 0.549 | 0 |
| 2026-06-25__2026-06-26 | 2026-06-26 | Australia vs ParaguayGermany vs EcuadorIvory Coast vs CuraçaoJapan vs SwedenNetherlands vs TunisiaUSA vs Turkiye | 0.568 | 1 |
| 2026-06-24__2026-06-25 | 2026-06-25 | Bosnia vs QatarBrazil vs ScotlandMexico vs CzechiaMorocco vs HaitiSouth Korea vs South AfricaSwitzerland vs Canada | 0.509 | 0 |
| 2026-06-23__2026-06-24 | 2026-06-24 | Colombia vs DR CongoEngland vs GhanaPanama vs CroatiaPortugal vs Uzbekistan | 0.317 | 1 |
| 2026-06-22__2026-06-23 | 2026-06-23 | Argentina vs AustriaFrance vs IraqJordan vs AlgeriaNorway vs Senegal | 0.291 | 0 |
| 2026-06-21__2026-06-22 | 2026-06-22 | Belgium vs IranNew Zealand vs EgyptSpain vs Saudi ArabiaUruguay vs Cape Verde | 0.673 | 0 |
| 2026-06-20__2026-06-21 | 2026-06-21 | Ecuador vs CuraçaoGermany vs Ivory CoastNetherlands vs SwedenTunisia vs Japan | 0.591 | 0 |
| 2026-06-19__2026-06-20 | 2026-06-20 | Brazil vs HaitiScotland vs MoroccoTurkiye vs ParaguayUSA vs Australia | 0.427 | 0 |
| 2026-06-18__2026-06-19 | 2026-06-19 | Canada vs QatarCzechia vs South AfricaMexico vs South KoreaSwitzerland vs Bosnia | 0.466 | 0 |
| 2026-06-17__2026-06-18 | 2026-06-18 | England vs CroatiaGhana vs PanamaPortugal vs DR CongoUzbekistan vs Colombia | 0.555 | 0 |
| Totals | 84 matches | 0.458 | 5 | |
| Call | Match | Prediction | Prob | Market prob | Mkt Δ | Market read | Actual | Outcome Points | Brier | Brier status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Missed | Spain vs Argentina 2026-07-19_ESP_ARG | Argentina | 52% | 54% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | Spain 1-0 | 0 | 0.541 | Computed |
| Missed | France vs England 2026-07-18_FRA_ENG | France | 55% | 52% | +3 pts | Market-aligned | England France 4-6 England | 0 | 0.605 | Computed |
| Correct | Argentina vs England 2026-07-15_ARG_ENG | Argentina | 55% | 52% | +3 pts | Market-aligned | Argentina Argentina 2-1 England | 1 | 0.405 | Computed |
| Missed | France vs Spain 2026-07-14_FRA_ESP | France | 55% | 58% | -3 pts | Market-aligned | Spain France 0-2 Spain | 0 | 0.605 | Computed |
| Correct | Argentina vs Switzerland 2026-07-11_ARG_SUI | Argentina | 70% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Argentina Argentina 3-1 Switzerland | 1 | 0.180 | Computed |
| Correct | Norway vs England 2026-07-11_NOR_ENG | England | 65% | 68% | -3 pts | Market-aligned | England Norway 1-2 England | 1 | 0.245 | Computed |
| Correct | Spain vs Belgium 2026-07-10_ESP_BEL | Spain | 52% | 62% | -10 pts | Independent / divergent | Spain Spain 2-1 Belgium | 1 | 0.461 | Computed |
| Correct | Morocco vs France 2026-07-09_FRA_MAR | France | 35% | 68% | -3 pts | Market-aligned | France Morocco 0-2 France | 1 | 0.845 | Computed |
| Correct | Argentina vs Egypt 2026-07-07_ARG_EGY | Argentina | 57% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Argentina Argentina 3-2 Egypt | 1 | 0.370 | Computed |
| Missed | Switzerland vs Colombia 2026-07-07_SUI_COL | Colombia | 52% | 55% | -3 pts | Market-aligned | Switzerland Switzerland 0-0 Colombia (Switzerland won on penalties) | 0 | 0.541 | Computed |
| Missed | Belgium vs USA 2026-07-06_BEL_USA | USA | 52% | 45% | +7 pts | Independent / divergent | Belgium Belgium 4-1 USA | 0 | 0.541 | Computed |
| Correct | Spain vs Portugal 2026-07-06_ESP_POR | Spain | 52% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Spain Spain 1-0 Portugal | 1 | 0.461 | Computed |
| Correct | Mexico vs England 2026-07-05_MEX_ENG | England | 65% | 68% | -3 pts | Market-aligned | England Mexico 2-3 England | 1 | 0.245 | Computed |
| Missed | Norway vs Brazil 2026-07-05_NOR_BRA | Brazil | 75% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Norway Norway 2-1 Brazil | 0 | 1.125 | Computed |
| Correct | Canada vs Morocco 2026-07-04_CAN_MAR | Morocco | 55% | 60% | -5 pts | Independent / divergent | Morocco Canada 0-3 Morocco | 1 | 0.405 | Computed |
| Correct | Paraguay vs France 2026-07-04_PAR_FRA | France | 80% | No Data | No Data | No Data | France Paraguay 0-1 France | 1 | 0.080 | Computed |
| Correct | Argentina vs Cape Verde 2026-07-03_ARG_CPV | Argentina | 82% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Argentina Argentina 1-0 Cape Verde | 1 | 0.065 | Computed |
| Correct | Australia vs Egypt 2026-07-03_AUS_EGY | Egypt | 58% | 62% | -4 pts | Market-aligned | Egypt Australia 1-2 Egypt | 1 | 0.353 | Computed |
| Correct | Colombia vs Ghana 2026-07-03_COL_GHA | Colombia | 62% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Colombia Colombia 2-1 Ghana | 1 | 0.289 | Computed |
| Correct | Portugal vs Croatia 2026-07-02_POR_CRO | Portugal | 52% | 58% | -6 pts | Independent / divergent | Portugal Portugal 2-1 Croatia | 1 | 0.461 | Computed |
| Correct | Spain vs Austria 2026-07-02_ESP_AUT | Spain | 65% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Spain Spain 3-0 Austria | 1 | 0.245 | Computed |
| Correct | Switzerland vs Algeria 2026-07-02_SUI_ALG | Switzerland | 55% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Switzerland Switzerland 2-0 Algeria | 1 | 0.405 | Computed |
| Correct | Belgium vs Senegal 2026-07-01_BEL_SEN | Belgium | 65% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Belgium Belgium 2-1 Senegal | 1 | 0.245 | Computed |
| Correct | England vs DR Congo 2026-07-01_ENG_COD | England | 80% | No Data | No Data | No Data | England England 2-0 DR Congo | 1 | 0.080 | Computed |
| Correct | USA vs Bosnia and Herzegovina 2026-07-01_USA_BIH | USA | 60% | 55% | +5 pts | Independent / divergent | USA USA 1-0 Bosnia and Herzegovina | 1 | 0.320 | Computed |
| Correct | France vs Sweden 2026-06-30_FRA_SWE | France | 75% | No Data | No Data | No Data | France France 3-0 Sweden | 1 | 0.125 | Computed |
| Correct | Ivory Coast vs Norway 2026-06-30_CIV_NOR | Norway | 55% | 60% | -5 pts | Independent / divergent | Norway Ivory Coast 1-2 Norway | 1 | 0.405 | Computed |
| Correct | Mexico vs Ecuador 2026-06-30_MEX_ECU | Mexico | 60% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Mexico Mexico 2-0 Ecuador | 1 | 0.320 | Computed |
| Correct | Brazil vs Japan 2026-06-29_BRA_JPN | Brazil | 75% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Brazil Brazil 2-1 Japan | 1 | 0.125 | Computed |
| Missed | Germany vs Paraguay 2026-06-29_GER_PAR | Germany | 70% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Paraguay Germany 1-1 Paraguay (Paraguay won on penalties) | 0 | 0.980 | Computed |
| Missed | Netherlands vs Morocco 2026-06-29_NED_MAR | Netherlands | 55% | 62% | -7 pts | Independent / divergent | Morocco Netherlands 1-1 Morocco (Morocco won on penalties) | 0 | 0.605 | Computed |
| Correct | South Africa vs Canada 2026-06-28_RSA_CAN | Canada | 56% | 63% | -7 pts | Independent / divergent | Canada South Africa 0-1 Canada | 1 | 0.387 | Computed |
| Correct | Algeria vs Austria 2026-06-27_ALG_AUT | Draw | 35% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Draw Algeria 3-3 Austria | 1 | 0.635 | Computed |
| Missed | Colombia vs Portugal 2026-06-27_COL_POR | Portugal | 45% | 55% | -10 pts | Independent / divergent | Draw Colombia 0-0 Portugal | 0 | 0.755 | Computed |
| Correct | Croatia vs Ghana 2026-06-27_CRO_GHA | Croatia | 50% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Croatia Croatia 2-1 Ghana | 1 | 0.380 | Computed |
| Correct | DR Congo vs Uzbekistan 2026-06-27_COD_UZB | DR Congo | 55% | No Data | No Data | No Data | DR Congo DR Congo 3-1 Uzbekistan | 1 | 0.305 | Computed |
| Correct | Jordan vs Argentina 2026-06-27_JOR_ARG | Argentina | 70% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Argentina Jordan 1-3 Argentina | 1 | 0.140 | Computed |
| Correct | Panama vs England 2026-06-27_PAN_ENG | England | 70% | No Data | No Data | No Data | England Panama 0-2 England | 1 | 0.140 | Computed |
| Missed | Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia 2026-06-26_CPV_KSA | Cape Verde | 50% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Draw Cape Verde 0-0 Saudi Arabia | 0 | 0.875 | Computed |
| Correct | Egypt vs Iran 2026-06-26_EGY_IRN | Draw | 35% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Draw Egypt 1-1 Iran | 1 | 0.635 | Computed |
| Correct | New Zealand vs Belgium 2026-06-26_NZL_BEL | Belgium | 75% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Belgium New Zealand 1-5 Belgium | 1 | 0.095 | Computed |
| Missed | Norway vs France 2026-06-26_NOR_FRA | Draw | 40% | No Data | No Data | No Data | France Norway 1-4 France | 0 | 0.740 | Computed |
| Correct | Senegal vs Iraq 2026-06-26_SEN_IRQ | Senegal | 75% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Senegal Senegal 5-0 Iraq | 1 | 0.095 | Computed |
| Missed | Uruguay vs Spain 2026-06-26_URU_ESP | Draw | 30% | 32% | +13 pts | Independent / divergent | Spain Uruguay 0-1 Spain | 0 | 0.855 | Computed |
| Missed | Australia vs Paraguay 2026-06-25_AUS_PAR | Australia | 45% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Draw Australia 0-0 Paraguay | 0 | 0.755 | Computed |
| Missed | Germany vs Ecuador 2026-06-25_GER_ECU | Draw | 35% | 55% | -15 pts | Independent / divergent | Ecuador Germany 1-2 Ecuador | 0 | 0.845 | Computed |
| Correct | Ivory Coast vs Curaçao 2026-06-25_CIV_CUW | Ivory Coast | 65% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Ivory Coast Ivory Coast 2-0 Curaçao | 1 | 0.195 | Computed |
| Correct | Japan vs Sweden 2026-06-25_JPN_SWE | Draw | 35% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Draw Japan 1-1 Sweden | 1 | 0.635 | Computed |
| Correct | Netherlands vs Tunisia 2026-06-25_NED_TUN | Netherlands | 60% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Netherlands Netherlands 3-1 Tunisia | 1 | 0.245 | Computed |
| Missed | USA vs Turkiye 2026-06-25_USA_TUR | Draw | 35% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Turkiye USA 2-3 Turkiye | 0 | 0.735 | Computed |
| Correct | Bosnia vs Qatar 2026-06-24_BIH_QAT | Bosnia | 50% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Bosnia Bosnia 3-1 Qatar | 1 | 0.375 | Computed |
| Correct | Brazil vs Scotland 2026-06-24_BRA_SCO | Brazil | 55% | 68% | -13 pts | Independent / divergent | Brazil Brazil 3-0 Scotland | 1 | 0.315 | Computed |
| Correct | Mexico vs Czechia 2026-06-24_MEX_CZE | Mexico | 45% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Mexico Mexico 3-0 Czechia | 1 | 0.465 | Computed |
| Correct | Morocco vs Haiti 2026-06-24_MAR_HAI | Morocco | 70% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Morocco Morocco 4-2 Haiti | 1 | 0.140 | Computed |
| Missed | South Korea vs South Africa 2026-06-24_KOR_RSA | South Korea | 55% | No Data | No Data | No Data | South Africa South Korea 0-1 South Africa | 0 | 1.005 | Computed |
| Missed | Switzerland vs Canada 2026-06-24_SUI_CAN | Draw | 45% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Switzerland Switzerland 2-1 Canada | 0 | 0.755 | Computed |
| Correct | Colombia vs DR Congo 2026-06-23_COL_COD | Colombia | 65% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Colombia Colombia 1-0 DR Congo | 1 | 0.188 | Computed |
| Missed | England vs Ghana 2026-06-23_ENG_GHA | England | 60% | 68% | -8 pts | Independent / divergent | Draw England 0-0 Ghana | 0 | 0.893 | Computed |
| Correct | Panama vs Croatia 2026-06-23_PAN_CRO | Croatia | 72% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Croatia Panama 0-1 Croatia | 1 | 0.121 | Computed |
| Correct | Portugal vs Uzbekistan 2026-06-23_POR_UZB | Portugal | 80% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Portugal Portugal 5-0 Uzbekistan | 1 | 0.065 | Computed |
| Correct | Argentina vs Austria 2026-06-22_ARG_AUT | Argentina | 65% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Argentina Argentina 2-0 Austria | 1 | 0.188 | Computed |
| Correct | France vs Iraq 2026-06-22_FRA_IRQ | France | 82% | No Data | No Data | No Data | France France 3-0 Iraq | 1 | 0.052 | Computed |
| Correct | Jordan vs Algeria 2026-06-22_JOR_ALG | Algeria | 52% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Algeria Jordan 1-2 Algeria | 1 | 0.349 | Computed |
| Missed | Norway vs Senegal 2026-06-22_NOR_SEN | Draw | 30% | 45% | -7 pts | Independent / divergent | Norway Norway 3-2 Senegal | 0 | 0.577 | Computed |
| Missed | Belgium vs Iran 2026-06-21_BEL_IRN | Belgium | 68% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Draw Belgium 0-0 Iran | 0 | 1.081 | Computed |
| Correct | New Zealand vs Egypt 2026-06-21_NZL_EGY | Egypt | 52% | 58% | -6 pts | Independent / divergent | Egypt New Zealand 1-3 Egypt | 1 | 0.349 | Computed |
| Correct | Spain vs Saudi Arabia 2026-06-21_ESP_KSA | Spain | 75% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Spain Spain 4-0 Saudi Arabia | 1 | 0.100 | Computed |
| Missed | Uruguay vs Cape Verde 2026-06-21_URU_CPV | Uruguay | 72% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Draw Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde | 0 | 1.165 | Computed |
| Missed | Ecuador vs Curaçao 2026-06-20_ECU_CUW | Ecuador | 75% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Draw Ecuador 0-0 Curaçao | 0 | 1.295 | Computed |
| Correct | Germany vs Ivory Coast 2026-06-20_GER_CIV | Germany | 65% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Germany Germany 2-1 Ivory Coast | 1 | 0.185 | Computed |
| Correct | Netherlands vs Sweden 2026-06-20_NED_SWE | Netherlands | 55% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Netherlands Netherlands 5-1 Sweden | 1 | 0.305 | Computed |
| Correct | Tunisia vs Japan 2026-06-20_TUN_JPN | Japan | 38% | 45% | -7 pts | Independent / divergent | Japan Tunisia 0-4 Japan | 1 | 0.577 | Computed |
| Correct | Brazil vs Haiti 2026-06-19_BRA_HAI | Brazil | 88% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Brazil Brazil 4-0 Haiti | 1 | 0.023 | Computed |
| Missed | Scotland vs Morocco 2026-06-19_SCO_MAR | Scotland | 35% | 42% | -7 pts | Independent / divergent | Morocco Scotland 0-1 Morocco | 0 | 0.654 | Computed |
| Missed | Turkiye vs Paraguay 2026-06-19_TUR_PAR | Turkiye | 45% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Paraguay Turkiye 1-2 Paraguay | 0 | 0.814 | Computed |
| Correct | USA vs Australia 2026-06-19_USA_AUS | USA | 62% | No Data | No Data | No Data | USA USA 2-0 Australia | 1 | 0.218 | Computed |
| Correct | Canada vs Qatar 2026-06-18_CAN_QAT | Team A win | 58% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Team A win | 1 | 0.266 | Computed |
| Missed | Czechia vs South Africa 2026-06-18_CZE_RSA | Team A win | 44% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Draw | 0 | 0.771 | Computed |
| Correct | Mexico vs South Korea 2026-06-18_MEX_KOR | Team A win | 41% | 58% | -17 pts | Independent / divergent | Team A win | 1 | 0.522 | Computed |
| Correct | Switzerland vs Bosnia 2026-06-18_SUI_BIH | Team A win | 55% | No Data | No Data | No Data | Team A win | 1 | 0.306 | Computed |
| Correct | England vs Croatia 2026-06-17_ENG_CRO | Team A win | 48% | 52% | -4 pts | Market-aligned | England win (4-2) | 1 | 0.409 | Computed |
| Correct | Ghana vs Panama 2026-06-17_GHA_PAN | Team A win | 44% | 61% | -17 pts | Independent / divergent | Ghana win (1-0) | 1 | 0.474 | Computed |
| Missed | Portugal vs DR Congo 2026-06-17_POR_DRC | Team A win | 68% | 70% | -2 pts | Market-aligned | Draw (1-1) | 0 | 1.117 | Computed |
| Correct | Uzbekistan vs Colombia 2026-06-17_UZB_COL | Team B win | 62% | 60% | +2 pts | Market-aligned | Colombia win (3-1) | 1 | 0.220 | Computed |
| Totals | 58 | 0.458 | 84 computed | |||||||
How to read it
Outcome points
Correct prediction = 1. Incorrect prediction = 0.
Daily Brier bonus
Lowest same-day aggregate Brier receives +1 official point. Exact ties share the bonus.
Brier score
Lower is better. It measures probability calibration, not just the final pick.
Cumulative board
Scores aggregate across every stored package with actual results.